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The Media’s Top 10
Economic Myths of 2007
See Executive Summary
10. Airlines are solely to blame for
the unfriendly skies.
Media myth:
Blame the airlines for all those flight delays; never mind the
obsolete government-run agency creating the gridlock.
The media were quite unfriendly to airline
companies this year,
attacking them repeatedly for flight delays and for making a profit.
NBC’s Meredith Vieira even tried to extract a promise from one CEO –
asking him to guarantee that no flight would ever be cancelled
again.
“Do you fly to
San Francisco by any chance?” the host of
NBC’s “Today” show asked Northwest’s Douglas Steenland on the August
15 program.
“OK, I have to go out there, are you going to promise me, guarantee
me, that if I buy a ticket at the end of August you won’t cancel
that flight?”
Vieira phrased
the outrageous question as though it were Steenland’s fault
that a high number of flights had been cancelled earlier in the
summer.
Charles Gibson
blasted companies’ bottom line on September 17: “And new airline
industry numbers out today show that while millions of passengers
suffer through record delays, cancellations and lost baggage –
airline profits have been soaring,” said the ABC “World News”
anchor. Never mind that some airlines had barely made it out of
bankruptcy protection and were finally turning a profit.
Interviews
highly critical of airline CEO’s, “summer travel nightmare” stories
and complaints that the companies were making money populated
broadcasts in 2007. Missing from most stories was criticism of the
Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and air traffic control (ATC)
systems.
Truth: The Boyd Group, an aviation
consulting company that has been quoted by The Wall Street Journal,
BusinessWeek and other media, faults the government-run FAA and ATC
system for flight delays in particular.
“The
main cause of delays is the decades-long inability of the FAA to
construct an ATC system that meets the demands of the air
transportation system. The ATC system is not a static set-piece
to which we must adjust our aviation system. Instead, it is a vital
part of our infrastructure which the FAA has repeatedly failed to
keep updated,” states the Boyd Group Web site.
The Boyd Group
continued: “The FAA has consistently wasted billions over the past
25 years, often on programs that only get so far and are then
cancelled.”
Wired
magazine also acknowledged serious flaws with the outdated ATC in
October saying,
“Built on World War II
technology, the system is showing its age. Planes move quickly, and
radar takes anywhere from three to 12 seconds to accurately read a
position.”
9. Consumer spending is the be-all,
end-all of the economy.
Media myth:
Without excessive consumer spending – especially at Christmastime –
the U.S. economy will collapse.
“Consumer recession.” That sure
sounds scary. Journalists have been worrying about consumer spending
for months even before warning about a
“lukewarm” Christmas shopping season.
On November 6, Erin Burnett of CNBC was concerned about gas prices
impacting retail sales this Christmas: “Consumers like us
account for two-thirds of the economy, and if we don’t spend all of
our money at the department stores and Target and Wal-Mart this
shopping season, we could have a recession. So gas prices are a
crucial part of that,” Burnett said on NBC’s “Today.”
Just a couple weeks later, Burnett warned that “if consumers really
start to pull back, that is what will turn us from the r-word of
resilience to the r-word of recession,” on November 26 “NBC Nightly
News.” Now reporters have even invented the term “consumer
recession” and have warned about that too.
But it wasn’t just Burnett. It was ABC’s Dan Harris, Chris Cuomo and
others.
Truth:
Holiday
spending wasn’t as ho-hum as journalists had worried.
Despite predictions of a “gray Friday,”
Black Friday and Saturday sales combined saw a 7.2-percent sales
increase, rising to $16.4 billion.
But what happens
if we don’t “spend all of our money,” as Burnett warned?
Economists like
Arnold Kling and BMI adviser Gary Wolfram are just two experts who
disagree with the overemphasis on consumer spending. According to Kling,
“The idea that the economy needs
consumer profligacy is not nearly as entrenched among scholars as it
is among journalists, politicians, and other citizens. In fact,
there is a strong case to be made that we would be better off if we
had less consumer spending and
more saving.”
As for a “consumer recession,”
Dr. Gary Wolfram, a Hillsdale College
professor of economics, tackled that question.
“I suspect what they mean is that the economy will slow because
consumers stop buying,” Wolfram told BMI. “But if they stop buying,
then they must be saving. And the bears have been complaining that
consumers are in too much debt, so they should be happy that
consumers are reducing their debt.”
And if money not spent on Christmas, for example, were put in
banks –
that’s good for the economy, too.
“I think it is more valuable to look at what is
happening to producers investing. If they are investing what
consumers are saving, then the economy will be expanding, not
contracting,” Wolfram said.
8. The stock market is trouble,
whether it goes up or down.
Media myth:
One day the stock market can’t sustain growth; the next, we’re just
one drop away from another crash.
It doesn’t seem
to matter which direction the stock market is moving, because both
earn pessimism from the media.
Around the 20th
anniversary of the Black Monday stock market crash, a nosedive that
cost investors 22.6 percent in one day, reporters were warning
“it could” happen again.
After explaining some
reasons why a crash was unlikely, Barron’s Andrew Bary wrote,
“Despite all this, a decline of 1987 proportions, while unlikely
isn’t impossible.” Bary then made the case for a huge stock decline,
even saying “the optimists’ case has some big flaws.”
CBS’s Alexis
Christoforous worried that such a crash could happen again based on
comparisons between 1987 and 2007.
“[Black Monday] was
made worse by computer program trading, but the things that
triggered it were overvalued stocks, a weak dollar, a period of
extreme market volatility and a summer of worrying economic news.
Sound familiar? Some market strategists are warning investors now to
strap in,” said Christoforous on October 14.
Susan McGinnis
complained on “Early Show” about a 100 point-drop in the Dow on
October 15, but without mentioning the record high for the Dow on
October 11 and record close of 14,164 on October 9. Meredith Vieira
on NBC and Chris Cuomo on ABC both worried about a crash in
September as the market saw ups and downs.
Ironically, the same
downbeat view about the stock market surfaced as the market was
climbing to record highs.
“Even
as investors are making money in the market, Anthony Mason reports
there are concerns tonight about the rest of the U.S. economy,”
complained “CBS Evening News” anchor Katie Couric on the day the Dow
closed above 13,000 for the very first time.
Truth: According to the October 15 Wall
Street Journal, a stock market crash is unlikely and investors “see
stocks continuing their rebound.”
Unlike some in
the media,
“Hardly anyone is thinking about” the crash of 1987, according
to Phil Roth (quoted by The Wall Street Journal on October 15). Roth
is a chief technical market analyst at the brokerage firm Miller
Tabak.
That Wall Street
Journal article by E. S. Browning also disagreed with the “Evening
News” assertion that stocks are “overvalued.”
“Stocks don’t look as
overpriced today as they did in 1987. Today, the companies in the
Standard & Poor's 500-stock index trade only a little above the
historical average of 16 times profits for the past 12 months. In
1987, the S&P 500 was at more than 20 times profits.”
In contrast to many
other reports, CNN’s Ali Velshi was optimistic about the stock
market – because of the facts – on “American Morning” December 10.
“It was a strong week
for all of the major indices. The Dow was up 1.9 percent, the NASDAQ
1.7 percent, and the S&P, which probably resembles more of your
401(k)s, up 1.6 percent. How is it looking for the year? Well, just
a couple of weeks ago, we thought your earnings, your winnings for
the year had been wiped out. But they haven't. Look at that. The Dow
is up almost 9.3 percent, the NASDAQ better than that [12.04%]. And
the S&P, a little weaker, but still up about 6 percent,” said the
senior business correspondent.
7. Anyone who ‘denies’ global
warming shouldn’t be taken seriously.
Media myth:
Global warming could cause a ‘century of fires,’ just as it has
created allergies and ended winter fashion. If we don’t do something
now (i.e. spend hundreds of billions of dollars), it’s only going to
get worse.
Allergies, wildfires
and the end of winter coat season. What do these three things have
in common? Each one was cited as a result of global warming by the
news media. CNN exploited a
national tragedy on October 23 by finding a way to blame global
warming for wildfires, then went on to suggest even more fires due
to climate change.
"Climatologists
say, while we can't blame on fire on climate change, we can say that
these factors are combining in that area [Southern California] to
set up what could be a
century of fires just like what we're seeing now," said Tom
Foreman during “Anderson Cooper 360: In the Line of Fire.”
NBC’s Dr. Nancy Snyderman suggested on October 25 that
“Even global warming may play a role” in food allergies. And
Marie Claire magazine stretched even further in its October
issue. The magazine called for global cooling “so we get a chance to
wear winter’s hot new coats.” The 14-page segment on “hot” winter
coats was more
media activism against global warming and even included a staged
protest photograph.
In 2007, comparisons
between global warming skeptics and
holocaust deniers went mainstream. ABC’s “20/20” did it and so
did CBS’s Scott Pelley.
Pelley responded to
criticism of not including global warming skeptics in his reporting
by saying, “If I do an interview with [Holocaust survivor] Elie
Wiesel, am I required as a journalist to find a Holocaust denier?”
Newsweek magazine took
the “denier” comparison in another direction, comparing them to
moon-landing deniers on August 13. When asked if journalists
should be more interpretive or analytical in their climate change
reporting, Newsweek editor Sharon Begley said,
“It depends …When you cover the history of the space program, you
don't quote the percentage of Americans who think the moon landings
took place on a stage in Arizona.”
A number of journalists supported
activism over objectivity on the climate change issue, including
Editor & Publisher columnist Steve Outing.
“I’ve also been
thinking about the newspaper industry and global warming.
And frankly, I don't think newspapers are doing enough,” Outing
wrote. “Indeed, newspapers’ fabled commitment to ‘objectivity’ has
been a detriment to efforts to combat global warming.”
Truth:
Dissent against the
“consensus” on global warming gets the cold shoulder from the media,
but there is disagreement.
A climate scientist at the
University
of California,
Merced, told Alan Zarembo of the Washington
Spokesman-Review that these [California] wildfires are the result of two “staples of
the region's climatic history,” meaning “strong Santa Ana winds” and “a drought that turned
much of the hillsides to bone-dry kindling.” "Neither can be attributed to climate
change," said the UC Merced professor.
When it comes to warming stories, the
media typically downplayed extremes: No offense,
“No Impact Man,” but we won’t be going without toilet paper for
a year. Journalists also shied away from complaining about the huge
costs of taking action.
Variations on global warming legislation
have been proposed, none of them cheap. The Lieberman-Warner bill
could cost $4 trillion to $6 trillion over the next 40 years – or
roughly $500 for every American man, woman and child every year.
2007 was also the
year of “carbon neutrality.” Even the Oscars claimed to be
carbon-neutral and gave away carbon credits as swag. But the truth
according to some experts is that carbon credits do no more to limit
CO2 emissions than your salad lowers the calories from your double
cheeseburger, fries and milkshake.
Jutta
Kill of the Forests and the European Union Resource Network (FERN)
said
carbon offsetting does not reduce emissions and the
public is being seriously misled. Kill and several other
environmentalists explained that offset payments often go to tree
planting and other projects, but “they are not actually neutralising
their impact on the global environment.” The system is harmful, they
said, because
people believe action is being taken to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions when they buy offsets.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan
Greenspan warned about the cost of another carbon scheme – carbon
caps – in his book, “The Age of Turbulence”:
“There is not effective way to
meaningfully reduce emissions without negatively impacting a large
part of the economy. Net, it is a tax. If the cap is low enough to
make a meaningful inroad into CO2 emissions, permits will
become expensive and large numbers of companies will experience cost
increases that make them less competitive. Jobs will be lost and
real incomes of workers constrained,” wrote Greenspan.
Meanwhile, Time magazine declared the
“case closed on global warming” on February 19. But the March 5 “Hannity
& Colmes” scrolled a list of
more than 70 scientists who “indeed do question” global warming.
Even The Weather Channel founder John Coleman
declared global warming to be
“the greatest scam in history. I am amazed, appalled and highly
offended by it. Global Warming; It is a SCAM.”
6. You’d better not eat/drink that!
Media myth:
Forget the right to eat as you please; the nanny-state knows better.
The food police were
hard at work during 2007, and as usual they had deputies among the
media.
Salt,
fast food,
packaged meat, energy drinks, bottled water, soda, sugary
cereals and so many other foods and beverages were under attack for
being dangerous, unhealthy or harmful to the environment.
“Today” warned about the dangers of grilling just before Memorial
Day weekend. “We can’t broil and grill anymore?” replied “Today”
co-host Ann Curry on April 5 after a nutritionist said grilling is
dangerous. She was talking to Joy Bauer, who said people need to
avoid salty foods, grilling, frying and whole milk dairy products.
Thus far in December,
no warning about the dangers of Christmas cookies.
Journalists
constantly attack the foods Americans eat and the companies that
make them – Oscar Mayer, Tyson, Spence & Co. Ltd. and others.
Reporters hype food dangers, complaining about the obesity
“epidemic” and bringing on “consumer” experts who try to scare
viewers from eating just about everything. They also rarely include
any comments from the very companies or industries they attack, or
even from health experts with a different view.
According to the
media, red meat “that’s an issue, isn’t it, for cancer.” Barbequed
chicken is a no-no thanks to fat and calories.
Instead of serving up
balance on food issues, the media served a heaping order of
pro-regulation stories, attacking
caffeinated energy drinks and
casual dining chains like Ruby Tuesday and UNO Chicago Grill but
praising
bottled water bans because of the environmental impact.
Truth:
Moderation is the answer and
personal choice is better than government intervention.
A pro-regulation slant came as no surprise from the same
media that constantly repeat claims from the left-wing
Center for Science in the Public Interest.
“CSPI never met a
regulation or tax it did not love,” wrote Business & Media Institute
adviser
Dr. Elizabeth M. Whelan. “How to solve the obesity crisis? Tax
soda, ban its sale in schools, mandate that restaurants carry
detailed nutrition labels on menus, and sue McDonald’s for luring
children …” Whelan, who is also the president of the American Council on
Science and Health, wrote an open
letter to CSPI in 1992 pointing out flaws in the group’s methods
and claims and a general lack of common sense.
“There are no good or bad foods, only
good or bad diets,” Whelan wrote as a response to CSPI’s
“10 Foods You Should NEVER Eat.”
“The word ‘moderation’ does not seem to
be part of this movement’s vocabulary,” concluded Whelan. It may not
exist in the media’s vocabulary either.
Occasionally the media quoted a
dissenter, such as Onkar Ghate of the Ayn Rand Institute. Ghate told
“CBS Evening News,” “I don’t think the government should ever be in
the position of a parent, in effect, and telling people, ‘You’re
eating too many hamburgers. Stop doing that. Eat more vegetables,’”
on November 7. 5.
Most Americans are losing their homes.
Media myth:
Americans everywhere are losing their homes to foreclosure, and the
housing bust is going to ruin the economy.
The housing boom/bubble/bust has been big news
for the last few years, with the media foretelling economic doom all
along. 2007 was the year of the “subprime crisis,” as loans made
with no down payments and/or adjusting interest rates came due. It
was the “credit crunch” as many, including journalists, pushed for
the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Heart-tugging victim stories highlighted
housing coverage, showing those facing foreclosure as everyman. CNN
talked to one homeowner in December who said
he did not know
he had an adjustable-rate mortgage. Anchor John Roberts asked
the man whether he thought President Bush’s plan to freeze “teaser”
rates was “fair.” Naturally the homeowner, who was already three
months behind in his payments, didn’t think so – because the rate
freeze didn’t apply to him.
Foreclosure seemed imminent for much of America, as
reporters continually proclaimed “record-high foreclosures.”
“Listen to this number on mortgage foreclosures
in this country,” said NBC “Nightly News” anchor Brian Williams on
August 23. “They’re up 93 percent nationwide last month from the
same period last year. This situation is dire. It’s creating a lot
of anxiety about how that’s going to affect a great many homeowners
and the economy as a whole.”
The problem was, the numbers were inflated –
and most stories were based on those numbers.
Truth:
The foreclosure figures most stories used came from RealtyTrac, a
source that counts each filing in the foreclosure process. One house
has to go through several steps in the process, so counting each one
as a separate foreclosure is inaccurate. Rick Sharga, the
organization’s president, said it is misleading to call the number
total foreclosures – which is what the media kept doing.
In the case of the Brian Williams report above,
“It was a 93-percent increase of total foreclosure
activity, and when I see
the headline foreclosures up 93 percent, I cringe just like you do,”
Sharga told the Business & Media Institute (emphasis added).
Amidst all the talk of housing busts, too, you might be surprised
to learn that the national average home price is actually up – way
up from seven years ago.
Since January 2000, the national average home price has
risen by 80.45 percent, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index of
home prices. But television news viewers were unlikely to hear that
figure, because most reporters were focused on the 4.5-percent price
decline since the third quarter of 2006. Declines from record highs
should be put in perspective.
4. “Going Green” is good for America
and business.
Media myth:
Businesses are much better off if they go green, and that’s what
people really want anyway.
If you “go green,” you’ll have an easier time
of it in the major media. Continental Airlines (NYSE:CAL)
CEO Larry Kellner learned that when he practically got a pass from
Matt Lauer in an August 23 “Today” interview, thanks in part to the
company’s green efforts:
“I want to end on another positive note, and again this is the
easiest one of these interviews that we’ve done, but you were named
one of the green giants by Fortune magazine,” gushed Lauer, in
contrast to interviews with other airline CEOs.
The media have created all sorts of lists of
things for individuals to do, from Time magazine’s
“51 Things You Can Do to Make a Difference” for the planet to
Marie Claire’s
judging of carbon “sins.”
But businesses are also under media pressure to
take big steps in the name of the environment. Just read what Time
magazine had to say on June 7: “The business case for going green is
increasingly clear, even without Al Gore droning on and on and on
about it: where green goes, so does the bottom line.” When companies
go green, the media tend to follow with positive coverage. But
journalists often ignore the higher cost of “eco-friendly” choices.
Truth:
BusinessWeek deserves credit for revealing the “Little Green Lies”
corporate sustainability advocates have been telling. Its profile of
environmentalist Auden Schendler showed the futility of his quest to
“green” his company. Contrary to what Schendler once thought, and
what the media say, “many major initiatives simply aren’t
money-savers. They come with daunting price tags that undercut the
conviction that environmental salvation can be had on the cheap,”
wrote BusinessWeek.
Schendler discovered the purchase of “renewable
energy credits,” a source of many companies’ green boasting, was a
hollow claim. Though his company said it “offset 100 percent of its
electricity use” through the credits, he found he had been deceived.
Other businesses have made green promises, only
to see red problems result. According to BusinessWeek, in 2003 FedEx
announced plans to begin using 3,000 clean-burning hybrid trucks a
year and even won a prize in 2004 from the Environmental Protection
Agency.
But the cost of those hybrid trucks proved to be too
much – 75 percent more than regular trucks – and as a result FedEx
had fewer than 100 of them in 2007. “We do have a fiduciary
responsibility to our shareholders,” environmental director Mitch
Jackson told BusinessWeek.
3.
Lenders are responsible for everyone’s debts.
Media myth:
Drowning in red ink isn’t your fault; blame the guy who loaned you
the money.
Americans are up to their
necks in debt, but media reports about consumer debt for everything
from
student loans to mortgages in 2007 gave most borrowers a pass
for poor decision making. Instead, reporters accused lenders and
other financial businesses of “luring” borrowers, making “bad
loans,” and “leading more American families down the path of
financial ruin.” ABC
“World News” anchor Charles Gibson teased a story about foreclosures
on March 26 saying,
“The Home Wreckers. Locking families out of the American dream by
offering mortgages too good to be true.”
A Business &
Media Institute and Culture and Media Institute analysis of evening
news programs on ABC, CBS and NBC found that between Nov. 28, 2006,
and Aug. 31, 2007, businesses were blamed for borrowers’ debt six
times as often as the borrowers themselves. The study also found
that 62 percent of stories ignored the consumer’s responsibility and
portrayed borrowers as victims.
Victims
presented by the media included a North Carolina family struggling
to make the mortgage payment who “lived off peanut butter and
jelly,” a college student who was charged fees by the bank for
overdrawing her account, and a Miami condo flipper.
“They’re some
of the most spectacular views in Miami, but those storm clouds over
this city’s condo market are now symbolic of gloomy values,” said
Kerry Sanders on the July 26 “Nightly News.” “In some buildings half
the units were purchased by investors. Natalie and David Luongo got
caught up in the hysteria. In eight months, they pocketed $130,000
flipping an unbuilt condo. But now they’re stuck, three other
condos, a quarter million dollars down, closing set for the end of
the month.”
Talking about
her “misfortune,” the featured condo flipper Natalie Luongo said:
“It’s very hard to deal with. I mean it’s literally my whole life
savings, and it’s going to be now living paycheck to paycheck.”
Truth:
While some lenders may have been “unscrupulous,” no one holds a
gun to someone’s head and forces him or her to take out a mortgage with a
variable rate or without a down payment.
Financial experts like Dave Ramsey
emphasize the need for personal responsibility when it comes to
borrowing.
“You ought to
kind of have a clue in your own life. If you’re behind in your
bills, you have no money, your income is not great, you’re probably
not getting the best mortgage,” Ramsey said on the April 3 “Early
Show.”
Ramsey continued, “… being on the b-word, the budget. Living on less than
you make, having a goal and saying, I don’t have to do this today. It could be a
two-year goal to buy a home … It’s OK to rent for a little while, while you get
your act together.” If
the evening newscasts had included Ramsey and other financial experts willing to
promote individual responsibility, media coverage of debt would have been much
more balanced.
2.
Free health care would be great!
Media myth:
To save our children and the 47 million uninsured Americans, and to
keep up with the rest of the world, we must have government-run
health care.
From children to the uninsured to
Michael Moore, 2007 was a big year for health care in the media.
As Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Hillary Clinton (N.Y.)
and others came out with their plans for “universal” health care,
the media jumped on board with little analysis or criticism. That
combined with
enough gushing about Michael Moore to make a viewer “Sicko.”
“There’s something
different about this Michael Moore movie,” said ABC’s Terry Moran on
the June 13 “Nightline.” “For all the laughs, it’s very serious and
laced with qualities not usually associated with his films: pity,
compassion, generosity, sorrow.” Journalists considered government
health care the compassionate, generous choice, overlooking the
massive taxpayer-funded cost behind it.
And where there’s compassion, there are
children. The media assumption seemed to be
when the story’s got children, who needs facts? In the midst of
all the concerned parents and cute kids pulling wagons of petitions,
the media missed out on the crucial problem of enough tax increases
to fund a $35-billion expansion of the State Children’s Health
Insurance Program (SCHIP).
Not only did journalists downplay the
initial tax increase, but they failed to realize the legislation was
“a budget sleight-of-hand,” as The Wall Street Journal explained
September 28.
“Known as a ‘funding cliff,’ the yearly Schip layout increases to
$13.9 billion in 2011, then abruptly cuts spending by 65%
below current funding levels. This helps ‘score’ the bill as
costing only $35 billion over the five-year budget window, but it
also means that come 2012 Congress will either have to pass new
spending or kick kids off the rolls.”
Coverage of any
health care policy was boosted with the figure of
“47 million uninsured Americans.” But the Business & Media
Institute dug into that number and found several sources debunking
it.
Truth: Politicians and
journalists alike have touted health care plans based on the
assumption of “47 million uninsured Americans.” That number is off
by 10 million at a minimum. There are millions who should be
excluded from an accurate total, including: those who aren’t
American citizens; people who can afford their own insurance but
don’t purchase it; and people who already qualify for government
coverage but haven’t signed up.
Government
statistics also show 45 percent – almost half – of those without
insurance at a given time will have insurance again within four
months. That contradicts the image of tens of millions of
chronically uninsured. In fact, the uninsured population is more
fluid.
Accounting
for all those factors, one prominent study places the total for the long-term
uninsured as low as 8.2 million – a very different reality than the media and
national health care advocates claim.
In addition to faulty numbers, health
care coverage suffered from a lack of numbers when it came to costs.
The type of health care Clinton and Moore were pushing for is hardly
“free.” USA Today’s Richard Wolf provided some refreshing honesty in
his June 22 piece, reporting the drastic difference in tax rates for
countries that provide “free” health care.
“In France and Britain, the tax burden
is 42% and 27% respectively, as opposed to 12% in the USA, according
to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,” he
wrote. Wolf also noted Moore’s exclusion of insurance industry and
U.S. health care representatives from his film and said “‘Sicko’
uses omission, exaggeration and cinematic sleight of hand to make
its points.”
Other reports,
including a film about the Canadian system called
“Dead Meat,” have shown that nationalized health care leads to
rationing of treatment and often long wait times.
1. The U.S. Economy is in
recession.
Media myth:
The U.S. economy is nearly in, or is in, a recession.
Did you buy a sweater? A Dunkin’ Donuts latte? Well then, clearly
the economy is in recession. Or so the media said in 2007. In fact,
they’ve been predicting the r-word for four years now. With this
year’s subprime mortgage hit, housing in general and the continued
fluctuation of gas and oil prices, journalists were certain the
economy wouldn’t survive, much less thrive.
They turned to several
“economic indicators” to evaluate the economy’s health. In addition
to
sweater sales, which was an early call from “Good Morning
America,” they used other sophisticated measures like Starbucks
coffee and mobile homes.
“Starbucks is also an
economic indicator, and the news on that front isn’t all good,” said
anchor Brian Williams on the November 16 “NBC Nightly News.”
Trish Regan worried that
consumers were feeling the pinch of gas prices and other expenses
and cutting back. However, later she included the facts that
Starbucks had raised its prices, while Dunkin’ Donuts offered
cheaper lattes.
In years past, it’s been
oil prices, hurricanes, global warming and terrorism that were
supposed to plunge the U.S. economy into recession. Instead, the
economy has been robust, and unemployment has stayed low – currently
just 4.7 percent. That hasn’t stopped journalists from mentioning
“recession” more than 100 times since the 2003 recovery began.
Truth: The U.S. economy is NOT in a
recession and has experienced strong growth.
Contrary to media assertions and CNN’s Ali
Velshi suggesting that “the bottom line is to most Americans, a
recession is what it feels like to you,” there is an actual,
objective definition of a recession. It’s two quarters of negative
economic (gross domestic product) growth, which the U.S. has not
seen in the last four years.
Instead, the economy has had 51 consecutive
months of job growth. The third quarter of 2007 was revised upward
to 4.9 percent GDP growth – very strong indeed. Yet the media have
remained
negative throughout four straight years of job growth.
And the economy has weathered oil prices. On
the June 12, 2004, “CBS Evening News,” Tony Guida reported a dire
prediction. “Some oil analysts see economic disaster if oil hangs
around $40 a barrel,” Guida said. Oil as of early December 2007 was
in the high $80s after rising above $90 per barrel, and still no
recession.
Add to all that an increase in workers’
earnings, documented by Rea Hederman and James Sherk of The Heritage
Foundation.
“The economy created
94,000 jobs in November, and the unemployment rate remained
unchanged from October at 4.7 percent,” Hederman and Sherk wrote. “Wages
grew at their sharpest rate since the middle of the summer,
which will fatten the wallets of workers during the Christmas
shopping season. The economy faces real challenges, but the evidence
so far refutes the notion that it is sliding into a recession.”
Those economists aren’t alone in their analysis.
“By most economists’ terms, a recession is defined as two or more
consecutive quarters of GDP decline – something we haven’t seen
since 1991,” wrote Fortune’s Peter Eavis on October 2. “By that
narrow definition we're not even close.
Of 50-plus economists surveyed by research firm Blue Chip Economic
Indicators, not one is predicting a recession. They still expect
GDP to grow 2.6% next year.”
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